The NATO variable.....

Relations between India and Russia (former USSR) have always been special. And here by special I mean that we have not been able to find any common denominator for this very strategic friendship. India and Russia were isolated in the ancient past with no trade or military transaction having ever taken place. (We will here not debate on the theory that Indian or Aryan origin can be traced back to the Caspian Sea which is I close proximity of Russia). The relations between both of these countries started post-independence.

Here it must be noted that post Independence it was the allurement of the USSR to the third world nations that brought these countries close. And a very erratic and un explainable alliance was forged. (Again leaving out the conspiracy theories, that have somewhat been rectified, that the KGB was funding the Gandhi family, which some allege continue today. Moreover the KGB’s strong hold over Indian government can be traced not only to the parliament but sections of the media itself, where Indian media was a victim of the famous KGB disinformation intelligence.). Having stated above and not taking into account such things would be highly hypocritical of me but without adequate proof and most importantly adequate understanding I would be guessing, which I personally hate. Unless of course done in exams or Viva which is the only thing that can be done.

For those of you who would like to further divulge into this topic you are very welcome to check out the book KGB: State within a State by Yevgenia Albats.

How India, a democracy and USSR a socialist with no common borders would have found safe harbors in each other’s friendships is not easily fathomable. Giving some ground to the conspiracy theories here we will proceed to what it has achieved for India. USSR and now Russia has always been India’s prime ally, whether it be selling of arms (India is the second largest importer of Russian arms) or vetoing in India’s favour at the UN (the Kashmir issue). India has always relied on Russian assistance in maters of need and Russian in turn has upheld India’s faith and trust to the point of sabotaging its relations with China, with whom it shares a common ideology of communism.

Today as a growing power India and as out-growing power Russia, that was almost falling apart and was recreated by Vladimir Putin, share common interests. Most important military assistance to India comes from Russia which is the only credible defense deterrence India has against the US-funded and armed Pakistan and the indigenous and fast developing China. Even in the past Russia for the benefit of India alone refused to sell and share MiG fighter jet technology with China which it shared with India and continued in the current Russian Sukhoi series where it created better and exclusive series of Sukhoi-MKi for India while selling other variants to China. Relationship between a growing and a out-growing power ca be summed on some of the collaborated defense deals: The Bhramos, INS Vikramaditya, 5^th generation fighter aircraft to name a few.

Now coming to the NATO variable in the Indian equation, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), with the US of A at its pinnacle started as a confederation of states against any future world war, which was not a far flung idea with the Cold war cropping up just post the World War II. Famously stated once, NATO’s objective can be stated as: ‘To keep Russians out, the Americans in and Germans down’- Lord Ismay, the first NATO Secretary General.

With the changing world scenario the NATO has taken a more important role in shaping the world politics. In close association with the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) of the UN in Afghanistan it has been able to increase its sphere of influence out of Europe. While earlier it was a major player in the Europe and the arenas of the cold war, post 9/11 its sphere of influence has come closer to India. That added with its expansionist policy in eastern Asia to keep the broken up USSR and now Russia down has shown that there has been no decrease in its structure or working even after the nd of the cold war.

While as such NATO does not pose a direct threat or help to India and neither does it offer Indians a position to join the alliance but with the arrival of the NATO forces in such a close proximity as Afghanistan is bound to shift the way we treat and look up to it. India in it’s overly appeasement policy of the west has applied the same to NATO. While the west in its own way has been supportive of India, allowing Indian aircraft to participate in the Red Flag exercises and other similar war games exclusively meant for the NATO members.

Truly speaking India’s diplomacy in maintaining its relations with the NATO in Afghanistan and Russia has been commendable. India has just given both enough ground. While with NATO it shares many common interests like Democracy and threat from communism, (in India’s case it is the communist China), and with Russia it shares long relations as an ally who has always been with India.

But some recent turn of events with inclusion of the NATO variable is disturbing this equation. India’s attempt to make a greater mark in the world politics, driven by its robust growing economy, has become an obsession to acquire a permanent seat in the UNSC (United Nations Security Council). While I have given my reservations to this matter in a former post, still India’s too much appeasement of the west continues and has not gone well with Russia. India might just be stalking a critical opportune period to develop its power and military sector with a self dependence in making indigenous arms for a premature promotion.

The recent appeasement of the Indians towards the Jigs of the Obama’s hasn’t gotten down well with the Russians whose president Mr. Dimtiry  Medvedev arrives India this December. Moreover India making its economy so porous to help out the US is seen as a definite sign of overly bowing for a guest. All of these are closely scanned by the Russians and may cause a brief chill in the Indo-Russian relations, which truly are the only ones India has been able to rely on. This can clearly be seen by Russia increasing its warmth to Pakistan and some defense deals being in the pipeline between them, when earlier Russia has refused to sell arms to Pakistan of the same variant as India.

In making new relationships India must be careful not to break old ones.

A perfect diplomat is one who is on all sides and is not committed to any.